Three numbers that answer different questions
House edge measures the mathematical average amount the house keeps for each unit initially wagered over a very large number of rounds, under a fixed paytable. Return to player (RTP) expresses the complementary long-run fraction expected to be returned, including stake and winnings. Turnover is the total value of wagers placed, counted repeatedly even if the same funds circulate through many rounds.
None of these measures is an individual person's guaranteed result. A high RTP does not mean an account balance will remain close to the starting balance in a short session.
From house edge to RTP
For the conventional eight-deck format with a 5% Banker commission, Wizard of Odds calculates a Banker house edge near 1.0579%. The corresponding theoretical RTP is approximately 100% − 1.0579% = 98.9421%. For ordinary Player wagers the house edge is about 1.2351%, so theoretical RTP is about 98.7649%. A Tie wager paying 8:1 has a house edge near 14.3596% and an RTP near 85.6404%.
These values depend on the exact game rules and payouts. Use the Wizard of Odds eight-deck return tables as the source for the reference figures.
Important variant distinction: The 98.9421% Banker RTP above assumes the standard five-percent commission on winning Banker wagers. A no-commission label does not mean that the same percentage applies: in a common Banker-six half-pay variant, a winning Banker total of six earns reduced profit, while in EZ Baccarat a winning three-card Banker seven makes the main Banker wager push. These settlement changes produce different theoretical returns. Read our sourced Super 6 versus EZ Baccarat rules comparison before comparing the figures; no rule variant removes the risk of loss.
Why turnover is not the money deposited
Suppose an adult pays for 100 hypothetical rounds at 10 units each. The total turnover is 100 × 10 = 1,000 units. That remains true even if the person began with only 100 units and reused winnings during the sequence. Turnover is a measure of betting activity, not necessarily new money transferred into an account.
A larger turnover increases the absolute amount of mathematical exposure when the game and stake composition remain unchanged. It does not require that losses accrue smoothly. One round may return profit, another may produce a loss, and a Tie may push ordinary main bets.
Calculating illustrative expected loss
Take the 1,000-unit hypothetical turnover entirely on the standard eight-deck commissioned Banker wager. Expected loss is 1,000 × 0.010579 ≈ 10.58 units. If the same turnover were placed on standard Player wagers, expected loss would be roughly 1,000 × 0.012351 = 12.35 units. At the illustrative 8:1 Tie payout, 1,000 × 0.143596 = 143.60 units.
The figures are not three guaranteed session outcomes. Each is a long-run expected value conditioned on the same amount wagered and the stated rule set. A single session may finish far above or below its expectation.
The difference between average loss and volatility
Imagine two equally long sequences of hands. Both may have the same rules and therefore the same mathematical expectation, yet their individual outcomes can be wildly different because winning and losing hands occur in different orders. The house edge describes the centre of the return distribution, not the path each sequence takes.
This is why quoting a 98.94% theoretical RTP as though someone will recover exactly 98.94 units from each 100-unit stake misunderstands the statistic. The actual individual hand returns either a qualifying win, a loss, or a push under its rules.
Speed changes the amount exposed per hour
When more rounds occur during the same period and stake size remains unchanged, hourly turnover rises. For example, 30 hypothetical rounds at 10 units equal 300 units turnover; 60 such rounds equal 600. At a fixed 1% mathematical edge, those figures imply 3 versus 6 units of expected loss. The example illustrates the relationship, not a claim about how many hands any particular table actually deals.
Read our Baccarat odds and house edge lesson for the outcome probabilities and our betting-systems explanation for why changing stakes does not reverse a negative expectation.
What the numbers are useful for
RTP and house edge are useful for comparing precise, published paytables and understanding why a visually attractive payout can be mathematically expensive. They are not financial forecasts, endorsements, or a reason to increase stakes. An adult who chooses to gamble should decide a spending limit independently of any expectation of winning, and never use borrowed or essential funds.